Topic Information Award/Contract Number Proposal Information Company Performance

Mapping of Long-term Threats, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts

HSHQDC0800086 0811103
(FY08.1 Phase I)
Landscape vulnerability maps for rare dangerous events

Applied Biomathematics
100 North Country Road
Setauket, NY 11733-1300


To apportion resources wisely, decision makers need to estimate the location and importance of threats and vulnerabilities at local, regional, and national landscape levels. Dynamic, high quality, geographically explicit data are becoming more and more available for use as inputs to such predictions. However, methods are required for analyzing this data and producing maps of the likelihood of severe future events. This project will dynamically map the relative attractiveness of geographic locations to harm-causing events. Ecological modeling techniques that predict habitat suitability, species abundance, and propensity for habitat disturbance and change due to natural disasters and the impact of human activities provide the basis for the development. Findings from risk perception and communication research will guide the output visualization technique, tailoring the hazard depiction to the decision context and exploring alternate methods for communicating projection uncertainty. Commercial applications of the new technology (apart from homeland security) include maps of exposure to risk of loss from natural disasters such as earthquakes, hurricanes, floods, and wildfires, as well as maps for planning the conservation of rare and endangered species and the use of natural resources.